[Deep Dive] Nov 2025 Statistics: The Structural Fault Lines Behind the "Abnormal" Numbers

Executive Summary: The Truth Behind the Numbers

The export statistics for November 2025 (October customs clearance) show fluctuations that cannot be explained by simple supply and demand.

We are seeing structural shifts driven by politics and strict regulations:

• Myanmar (+80.8%): Capital flight strategies under the military regime.

• Jamaica (+74.3%): A logistical panic to beat the "Jan 1st Cut-off."

• Malaysia (-28.4%): A political shockwave from the subsidy cuts for the wealthy.

• Mongolia (-19.9%): An urban blockade via license plate caps.

This report diagnoses the "blood flow" of these four volatile markets and provides actionable intelligence for your next bid and shipping strategy.

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📈 The Surge: Exploiting Loopholes & Beating Deadlines

1. Myanmar (+80.8% / 302 units)

The "Salary Remittance" Scheme & EV Tax Haven

To dismiss this +80% surge as merely an "EV Boom" is amateur analysis. Behind this figure lies a complex financial scheme to bypass the strict foreign currency controls imposed by the State Administration Council (SAC).

• The "Salary Remittance" License Market

  • The Ministry of Commerce currently grants priority EV import licenses to those who can prove they have remitted foreign currency earnings (from workers in Japan, Korea, Malaysia, etc.) back home through official channels.

  • The Reality: A secondary market has formed where brokers buy and sell these "Remittance Quotas" as de facto import rights. The October surge is the result of this scheme maturing, with large settlements for commercial EVs (Nissan Clipper EV, Minicab MiEV).

• SKD (Semi-Knocked Down) Crackdown Risk

  • While smuggling CBU (Complete Built-Up) commercial vans (like Hiace) disguised as SKD parts has been rampant, customs inspections (X-ray and physical checks) have intensified since October.

  • Warning: There is a high risk of cargo confiscation for "fake SKD" units.

【Strategic Action】

• Buy: Nissan Leaf (ZE1) and Sakura with SoH 80%+. These are the easiest to clear with official licenses.

• Sell/Avoid: Pre-2018 commercial vehicles via the SKD route. The door is closing.

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2. Jamaica (+74.3% / 2,971 units)

The Logistics Russian Roulette of "Year 2019"

This explosive increase is driven not by demand, but by fear.

• The "Jan 1st Cut-off" Rule

  • Jamaica's import regulations strictly prohibit passenger vehicles older than 6 years. As of January 1, 2026, any vehicle manufactured in 2019 will become prohibited.

  • Critical Risk: Shipments departing in October/November face the risk of delays (Panama Canal congestion, transshipment). If a vessel arrives in Kingston on January 2nd, any 2019 model onboard faces mandatory Re-shipment (Return to Origin).

• Dealer Speculation

  • Local dealers aggressively bought 2019 stock in October, betting they could clear customs before the deadline. However, many have not hedged against shipping delays.

【Strategic Action】

• STOP: Do not ship any 2019 models to Jamaica from December onwards. It is a guaranteed loss.

• Alternative: If you hold 2019 stock, immediately divert (Change of Destination) to Guyana (8-year rule) or St. Lucia.

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📉 The Plunge: Political Risks & Structural Recessions

3. Malaysia (-28.4% / 1,771 units)

Budget 2026 & The "T15" Subsidy Shock

The nearly 30% drop is proof that the Malaysian used car ecosystem is undergoing a forced structural transformation.

• Targeting the "T15": Fuel Subsidy Removal

  • Prime Minister Anwar's "Budget 2026" announced the removal of RON95 petrol subsidies for the Top 15% income earners (T15).

  • Cost Impact: Without subsidies, fuel costs are expected to jump from RM2.05/L to over RM3.50/L. For the T15 demographic—the primary buyers of the Toyota Alphard 3.5L V6—these vehicles are turning into liabilities.

• PEKEMA (Importer Association) Cash Crunch

  • AP holders are sitting on expensive unsold inventory from 2023-2024 and are struggling with floor plan interest payments. Cash flow for new purchases has dried up.

【Strategic Action】

• Shift Strategy: Stop buying 3.5L V6 engines immediately. Pivot to 2.5L Hybrids (AYH30/AAHH40) or downsized MPVs like the Honda Stepwagon (1.5L Turbo).

• Currency: Ensure contracts are USD-denominated or hedged, as the MYR remains volatile against the JPY.

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4. Mongolia (-19.9% / 3,630 units)

Urban Blockade via "License Plate Caps"

The decline in Mongolia is not just about the winter season; it is caused by a physical regulatory blockade by Ulaanbaatar City.

• Vehicle Registration Cap

  • Effective November 8, 2024, Ulaanbaatar implemented a new ordinance capping the total number of registered vehicles to combat congestion.

  • Impact: New license plates are largely restricted unless an existing vehicle is deregistered (scrapped). This effective "one-in, one-out" policy has paralyzed the market; buyers are afraid they cannot register new imports.

• RHD Ban Uncertainty

  • Discussions regarding a total ban on Right-Hand Drive (RHD) vehicles by 2027 or 2030 have resurfaced. No dealer wants to hold long-term stock of high-value RHD units (like Land Cruiser 300) that might become illegal to drive.

【Strategic Action】

• LHD Only: Accelerate the shift to Left-Hand Drive (LHD) units via Europe/Korea/Dubai, or offer RHD-to-LHD conversion kits.

• Rural Focus: Target buyers in Darkhan or Erdenet, where Ulaanbaatar's registration caps do not apply. Focus on 4WD utility wagons (Probox 4WD).

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Conclusion: The Verdict for Professionals

These statistics brutally demonstrate that "yesterday's winning patterns no longer apply."

1. In Jamaica, only those who can read the "calendar" will survive; those who cannot will face bankruptcy via Re-shipment.

2. In Myanmar, everything depends on whether you can partner with a broker holding a valid "Remittance License."

3. In Malaysia, the era of the "3.5L Gasoline Engine" is over; a forced transition to "Hybrids" is underway.

4. In Mongolia, the key is possessing sales channels "outside of Ulaanbaatar."

Check your inventory list immediately. If you hold vehicles that match these "Red Flags," execute a Cut Loss or Change of Destination (COD) without hesitation.

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❓ Professional Q&A (Nov 2025 Statistics)

Q1. Why did exports to Myanmar surge by +80.8%?

A. The "Salary Remittance License" scheme and EV tax exemptions.

It's not just organic demand. A secondary market for import licenses—based on proof of foreign currency remittance by overseas workers—has stabilized. Additionally, tax-free EVs (Nissan Leaf ZE1) remain the only viable luxury import under the current regime.

Q2. Can I still ship 2019 models to Jamaica in December?

A. NO. It is operationally suicidal. The "6-year rule" is strictly enforced.

Any 2019 model arriving on or after Jan 1, 2026, will be denied entry. Given current shipping delays, December shipments will likely miss the deadline. Shift to 2020 models immediately.

Q3. Is the "Alphard Bubble" in Malaysia over?

A. The "3.5L V6" bubble has burst. The market is shifting to Hybrids.

The removal of fuel subsidies for the wealthy (T15 group) in Budget 2026 has killed demand for gas-guzzlers. Demand is rapidly consolidating around the 2.5L Hybrid (AYH30).

Q4. Is the drop in Mongolia (-19.9%) just seasonal?

A. No, it is structural.

The Ulaanbaatar Vehicle Registration Cap (limiting new license plates) is a game-changer. Combined with fears of a future RHD ban, the market for high-end RHD vehicles in the capital has frozen.

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Top 30 Used Vehicle Export Volumes in November

Country	Country name	October	November	Rate of Change
ロシア	RUSSIA	19,302	17,504	-9.3%
アラブ首長国連邦	UAE	22,690	18,583	-18.1%
モンゴル	Mongolia	4,534	3,630	-19.9%
タンザニア	Tanzania	12,360	10,441	-15.5%
ニュージーランド	NEW ZEALAND	6,055	4,866	-19.6%
バングラデシュ	BANGLADESH	1,700	2,038	19.9%
フィリピン	PHILIPPINE	3,935	3,510	-10.8%
タイ	Thailand	3,409	3,800	11.5%
ケニア	KENYA	7,259	6,282	-13.5%
ジャマイカ	JAMAICA	1,705	2,971	74.3%
南アフリカ共和国	SOUTH AFRICA	6,585	5,634	-14.4%
マレーシア	MALYSIA	2,473	1,771	-28.4%
チリ	CHILE	8,734	9,245	5.9%
ウガンダ	Uganda	3,972	3,285	-17.3%
オーストラリア	AUSTRALIA	1,809	1,792	-0.9%
ザンビア	Zambia	1,310	1,291	-1.5%
英国	United Kingdom	3,098	2,788	-10.0%
アメリカ合衆国	United states of america	1,624	1,311	-19.3%
モザンビーク	Mozambique	1,325	1,115	-15.8%
ガイアナ	Guyana	2,604	2,806	7.8%
コンゴ民主共和国	Democratic Republic of the Congo	1,146	1,412	23.2%
アイルランド	Ireland	1,557	1,289	-17.2%
ミャンマー	Myanmar	167	302	80.8%
ナイジェリア	Nigeria	2,204	2,776	26.0%
ジョージア	Georgia	1,580	1,805	14.2%
フィジー	Fiji	897	917	2.2%
ガーナ	Ghana	2,026	1,840	-9.2%
シンガポール	SINGAPORE	143	206	44.1%
ジンバブエ	Zimbabwe	1,382	1,343	-2.8%
バハマ	Bahamas	512	863	68.6%

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👉 Past Export Reports：

📚 過去の統計記事 / Past Monthly Reports:

• 2024年8月の統計記事 / August 2024 Report

• 2024年9月の統計記事 / September 2024 Report

• 2024年10月の統計記事 / October 2024 Report

• 2024年11月の統計記事 / November 2024 Report

• 2024年12月の統計記事 / December 2024 Report

• 2025年1月の統計記事 / January 2025 Report

• 2025年2月の統計記事 / February 2025 Report

• 2025年3月の統計記事 / March 2025 Report

• 2025年4月の統計記事 / April 2025 Report

• 2025年5月の統計記事 / May 2025 Report

• 2025年6月の統計記事 / June 2025 Report

• 2025年7月の統計記事 / July 2025 Report

• 2025年8月の統計記事 / Augast 2025 Report

• 2025年9月の統計記事 / September 2025 Report

• 2025年10月の統計記事/October 2025 Report