📈 [Oct 2025 Market Analysis] From Volume to Value: The Structural Shift in Used Car Exports. What the Surge in the US & Georgia and the Stagnation in Africa Really Mean.

fukada93
2025年12月20日
読了時間: 6分

We are approaching the end of 2025. The finalized October trade statistics from the Ministry of Finance have just been released, delivering what is arguably the most brutal yet clear message to used car exporters in years.

The conclusion is stark: The market has completely bifurcated into "Capital concentration in advanced/niche markets" versus "Purchasing power exhaustion in developing markets."

If you only look at the surface-level numbers, you will misjudge your business strategy. Why did the US market grow by 57% while Jamaica plummeted by 36%? By unwrapping the legal grounds and macroeconomic backing behind these figures, we analyze the survival strategy for 2026.

1. North America & The Anglosphere: Real Demand Driven by the "25-Year Rule" and Environmental Regulations

The biggest surprise in the October statistics was the leap in the USA (+57.1%) and New Zealand (+20.4%). This is not a temporary boom; it is a movement based on solid legal foundations.

🇺🇸 USA (1,624 units / +57.1%)

The Driver: Unleashing "MY2000" (Model Year 2000) The primary cause of this surge is the exemption under the US import regulation (the 25-Year Rule) for vehicles manufactured in the year 2000. Since late 2025, the eligibility dates for the R34 Skyline (Late Model), S15 Silvia, and late-model Kei trucks/vans have arrived. These are moving not as "mobility solutions" but as "investment assets," leveraged by the weak yen (trading in the 150 JPY/USD range).
The Evidence: NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) Under the FMVSS (Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards) exemption provisions, the unlocking schedule based on the month of manufacture is strict. The October figures represent the materialization of this "calendar-based demand."

🇳🇿 New Zealand (6,055 units / +20.4%)

The Driver: Adaptation to the Clean Car Standard (CCS) The confusion immediately following the introduction of the system has settled. Local importers have identified "viable models" (high-efficiency hybrids, PHEVs) and engaged in stockpiling for the year-end sales season.
The Evidence: NZ Transport Agency With the "feebate" system (fees and rebates based on CO2 emissions) now firmly established, statistics show a clear concentration of demand on specific models like the Toyota Aqua and Nissan Note e-POWER.

2. Eurasia: The Massive Logistics Distortion Created by "Sanctions"

The robustness of Russia (+9.0%) and the explosive growth of Georgia (+51.6%) must be analyzed as a set.

🇬🇪 Georgia (1,580 units / +51.6%)

The Driver: Establishing the "Re-export Hub" for the CIS Buyers avoiding the risks of direct shipping to Russia (such as payment freezes or lack of vessel space) have established a route to send vehicles to Central Asia and Russia via land from Georgia (Port of Poti). This figure, which cannot be explained by domestic demand alone (population: 3.7 million), is clearly a track record of "Re-export."
The Evidence: Geostat (National Statistics Office of Georgia) External trade data shows "Motor Cars" as the country's top export commodity, consistent with the reality that many imported Japanese cars are immediately transferred to neighboring countries.

🇷🇺 Russia (19,302 units / +9.0%)

The Driver: The Rush Before the "Utilization Fee" Hike Anticipating moves by the Russian government to raise the Utilization Fee (Scrappage Tax) on imported cars to protect the domestic industry, local dealers rushed to secure inventory, coinciding with winter 4WD demand.
The Evidence: Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation Historically, there is a strong correlation between the schedule of utilization fee revisions and spikes in import volumes.

3. Africa & Caribbean: Market Dysfunction Due to "Credit Tightening"

On the other hand, the drop in African and Caribbean nations is severe. This is not a case of "not wanting cars," but rather "having no means to buy them."

🇯🇲 Jamaica (1,705 units / -36.5%) & 🇧🇸 Bahamas (-35.9%)

The Driver: Stricter Loan Screening Due to High Interest Rates Influenced by high US interest rates, local financial institutions have tightened their Credit Approval Standards for auto loans. Even if end-users have the intent to purchase, cases of cancellation due to failed financing are rampant.
The Evidence: Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) Policy Rate High-interest rate policies to curb inflation continue, directly hitting the sales of durable goods like automobiles.

🇳🇬 Nigeria (2,204 units / -19.1%)

The Driver: L/C Issuance Stoppage Due to FX Reserve Depletion Due to the crash of the local currency (Naira) and a shortage of US dollars, formal remittances via the Central Bank are nearly paralyzed.
The Evidence: CBN (Central Bank of Nigeria) FX Reserves The divergence between the parallel market rate and the official rate is widening. The figures reflect a "Liquidity Crisis" where importers cannot source the settlement funds.

📊 Oct 2025 Export Performance Summary (Finalized)

Trend	Country	Units	MoM	Market Overview & Japan Carrier's View
Investment Demand	USA	1,624	⏫ +57.1%	Explosive buying of "25-Year Rule" cars. Transforming into a high-unit-price, high-margin market.
Logistics Hub	GEORGIA	1,580	⏫ +51.6%	Logistics concentrating here as a bypass route for CIS/Russia.
Solid	RUSSIA	19,302	↗ +9.0%	Still the biggest client. Winter demand and pre-tax hike rush continuing.
Advanced Market	UK	3,098	↗ +27.1%	Return of demand for eco-friendly cars (HV) alongside a strong Pound.
Hard Braking	JAMAICA	1,705	⏬ -36.5%	Market correction phase due to credit tightening. Beware of overstocking.
FX Shortage	NIGERIA	2,204	⏬ -19.1%	Payment risk is maximized. Forced shipments are strictly prohibited.
Adjustment	TANZANIA	12,360	↘ -0.9%	Flat growth due to purchasing power decline caused by inflation.

(Source: Ministry of Finance Trade Statistics, Oct 2025 Finalized Data)

🔮 Analyst’s Proposal: Portfolio Strategy for 2026

The October statistics suggest the limit of the "Low Margin / High Volume Model" (focusing on Africa/Caribbean). The deciding factor for the coming term will be whether you can lower your dependence on developing countries vulnerable to inflation and high interest rates, and shift to "countries that pay well, even if the standards are higher."

✅ 3 Points to Review Immediately:

Expand Inventory for North America & Oceania It takes effort, but you must build a system to handle compliance and cleaning for North America to handle high-unit-price vehicles.
Credit Control for Africa & Caribbean For Jamaica and Nigeria, stop "anticipatory ordering" (stock shipments) and switch to a strictly Order-Based system (shipment only after payment confirmation).
Adapt to "Complex Logistics" Exporters who can master land transport logistics via Georgia and Mongolia will dominate the demand in Russia and the CIS block.

Japan Carrier provides specialized container loading know-how for North America and the latest logistics route information via Georgia. To ensure you don't miss the wave of structural market change, please consult our Logistics Team.

❓ Market FAQ: Key Concerns from the October Stats

Q. Is the "+57.1%" in the US just a temporary bubble?

A. It will continue in the short term, but "Quality Selection" will begin in 2026. The current surge is due to the structural factor of "MY2000 Unlocking," and this trend (the rush for late R34s, S15s, etc.) will continue until at least the first half of 2026. However, as local inventory begins to pile up, price corrections will occur. The phase where "anything sells at a high price" will end, and only vehicles in good condition will survive.

Q. What is the current "Regulatory Risk" for Russia/Georgia?

A. The logistics route itself is stable, but "Payment Monitoring" is the biggest risk. The logistics network via Georgia (Port of Poti) is established, reducing physical transport risks. However, secondary sanctions by the G7 (monitoring of sanctions circumvention) are intensifying. There is always a risk that dollar remittances via correspondent banks could stop suddenly. We do not recommend entering this market without options for alternative currencies or third-country settlements.

Q. When will the African market (Nigeria/Jamaica) recover?

A. We predict the "Winter Era" will continue until Q2 2026 or later. Local inflation and currency depreciation are structural issues and are unlikely to resolve in a few months. Specifically, a full-scale recovery is not expected until Nigeria's FX reserves recover and the US pivots to interest rate cuts (lowering local loan rates in Jamaica). Now is the time to "endure."

👉 Past Export Reports：

📚 過去の統計記事 / Past Monthly Reports:

2024年8月の統計記事 / August 2024 Report
2024年9月の統計記事 / September 2024 Report
2024年10月の統計記事 / October 2024 Report
2024年11月の統計記事 / November 2024 Report
2024年12月の統計記事 / December 2024 Report
2025年1月の統計記事 / January 2025 Report
2025年2月の統計記事 / February 2025 Report
2025年3月の統計記事 / March 2025 Report
2025年4月の統計記事 / April 2025 Report
2025年5月の統計記事 / May 2025 Report
2025年6月の統計記事 / June 2025 Report
2025年7月の統計記事 / July 2025 Report
2025年8月の統計記事 / Augast 2025 Report
2025年9月の統計記事 / September 2025 Report