Aug 2025｜Japan’s Used‑Car Export Trends — What Drove the Swings?
- fukada93
- 11月6日
- 読了時間: 7分
Executive snapshot (July → August)
Top risers
Australia: +62.1% (1,289 → 2,089)
Jamaica: +41.5% (2,347 → 3,321)
Sharpest declines
Malaysia: −51.6% (4,470 → 2,162)
Chile: −40.6% (6,562 → 3,896)
One‑line take: Policy funnels (import rules), FX, and logistics timing explain most of this month’s extremes. Oceania lanes saw peak‑season surcharges in August, which can bunch arrivals; meanwhile, Jamaica’s well‑defined entry rules and steady financing kept retail orders flowing. Malaysia’s CO auto‑approval cancellation (Aug 11) added clearance friction; Chile’s demand hit a currency and regulatory ceiling.
What changed in the backdrop?
FX context
AUD/JPY ended August around ¥96 per AUD, supportive for Australia‑bound buying. Exchange Rates UK
MYR/JPY averaged roughly ¥34.8–35.1 per MYR in Aug, i.e., the ringgit firmed vs JPY—so Malaysia’s decline was not FX‑driven. Exchange Rates UK
USD/CLP hovered in the 950–975 range in August, a weak peso that inflates CIF+tax landed prices in Chile. Exchange Rates UK+1
Logistics
Carriers implemented/raised Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) to Australia & NZ in August, which can shift month‑to‑month arrival timing as shippers re‑book. hapag-lloyd.com+1
TOP #1 — Australia (+62.1%)
Why it jumped: A clear regulatory channel for older vehicles under RVSA, a supportive AUD/JPY, and Oceania PSS timing helped cluster arrivals into August.
1) Regulatory “container”: RVSA + ROVER + the 25‑year pathway
Australia’s Road Vehicle Standards Act (RVSA) requires an import approval through the ROVER portal before importation. The Department of Infrastructure also explains how to import vehicles 25 years or older—a channel that has steadily broadened eligible JDM models crossing the 25‑year threshold. That “eligibility calendar” tends to produce step‑ups in shipments. Infrastructure Australia+1
2) Price/FX
AUD traded in the mid‑¥95–96 range toward end‑August, cushioning Japan‑side acquisition and landed costs for Australian buyers. Exchange Rates UK
3) Logistics pulse
Major lines added PSS to Oceania from early/mid‑August. When costs shift and space tightens, bookings can move together—making monthly prints lumpy. August’s up‑print is consistent with that dynamic. hapag-lloyd.com+1
Operator notes (do this next month):
Build a model‑by‑model “25‑year eligibility” calendar and file ROVER early (ID verification can take weeks). Infrastructure Australia
Pre‑book two sailings ahead during PSS windows to reduce month‑end bunching. Maersk
TOP #2 — Jamaica (+41.5%)
Why it jumped: Clear, stable rules (age limits + PSI), policy rate on hold, and strong remittance inflows supported retail orders.
1) Clear import rules keep dealers ordering
Age limits: cars/SUVs generally ≤6 years at import. Trade Board+1
Pre‑Shipment Inspection (PSI/PSIC) is mandatory; Trade Board provides fee tables and verification pages. ATJ/Autoterminal Japan is an accredited provider. Stable rules reduce permit risks and help dealers plan inventory. Trade Board+2Trade Board+2
2) Financing environment & household cash flow
BOJ held the policy rate at 5.75% (Aug 2025)—not a loosening, but no new tightening shock either. Bank of Jamaica+1
Remittances: July 2025 net remittance inflows +4.6% YoY (US$281.9m), per Bank of Jamaica—a timely boost for down‑payments and trade‑ins feeding August shipments. Bank of Jamaica
Operator notes (do this next month):
Confirm PSI booking lead times and keep age‑limit compliance check embedded in auction “pre‑bid”. Trade Board+1
Time promos against remittance seasonality; remittance trends are published monthly by BOJ. Bank of Jamaica
BOTTOM #1 — Malaysia (−51.6%)
Why it fell: A procedural shock hit in mid‑August: auto‑approval for Certificates of Origin (CO) was discontinued effective 11 Aug 2025, moving to manual checks. Clearance friction and document re‑work likely slowed releases, pulling units out of August’s print.
1) The change that mattered in August
MITI formally announced the cancellation of auto‑approval for CO applications effective 11 Aug 2025 (official notice + PDF circular), echoed by the ePCO operator. That is exactly mid‑month—enough to disrupt shipments clearing in late‑August. miti.gov.my+2miti.gov.my+2
2) Structural context: AP regime broadened in 2024
From 1 July 2024, Open AP applications were opened more widely to Bumiputera companies—expanding the “entrance capacity” of importers but also adding adaptation frictions for newer entrants through 2024–25. BERNAMA+1
3) Not FX this time
MYR/JPY traded near ¥34.8–35.1 in Aug—ringgit stronger vs JPY than earlier in the year—so price headwinds were limited. The decline maps better to paperwork + gate rather than currency. Exchange Rates UK
Operator notes (do this next month):
Build extra lead time for CO vetting; pre‑validate rules of origin claims to avoid queries. miti.gov.my
Keep AP/permit governance tight; newer Open‑AP counterparts may need more proactive documentation support. BERNAMA
BOTTOM #2 — Chile (−40.6%)
Why it fell: Regulatory bottleneck + weak peso + softer retail.
1) Structure: why Chile swings hard on used imports
Chile’s Law 18.483 (Automotive Statute) generally prohibits the import of used vehicles for transport of people/cargo—except under special regimes (e.g., Free Zones such as ZOFRI Iquique / Punta Arenas, certain exemptions). This means the bulk of Japan‑origin used units must navigate free‑zone “release” mechanics to reach domestic circulation. Any slowdown in release/clearance translates quickly into monthly swings. aduana.cl+2aduana.cl+2
2) FX headwind
In August the USD/CLP rate hovered roughly 950–975, lifting CIF and tax components in peso terms—an immediate brake on demand sensitivity. Exchange Rates UK
3) Demand pulse
New‑vehicle sales fell 3.1% YoY in August 2025, signaling a cautious retail backdrop that also weighs on used‑car release decisions. La Tercera
Operator notes (do this next month):
Quote with a three‑way hedge (FX USD/CLP + ocean freight + taxes). Exchange Rates UK
For free‑zone stock, pre‑arrange “release” documentation and set customer expectations on timing/cost.
Cross‑market takeaways
FX asymmetry matters. Yen weakness aided Australia (AUD/JPY near ¥96), while Chile’s weak peso (USD/CLP ~965 avg) pushed landed prices higher. Expect this divergence to persist as long as rate differentials remain wide. Exchange Rates UK+1
Gate rules trump price. Malaysia’s mid‑month CO auto‑approval cancellation was enough to halve its August tally—paperwork can move markets. miti.gov.my
Stable regimes win orders. Jamaica’s age limits + mandatory PSI keep permits predictable; BOJ’s hold and steady remittances keep retail financed. Bank of Jamaica+3Trade Board+3Trade Board+3
Oceania lanes need booking discipline. With PSS in effect, arrivals can bunch; pre‑book and split consignments across sailings. hapag-lloyd.com+1
Q&A (Aug 2025)
Q1. Biggest gainer and the core driver?
Australia (+62.1%). A robust regulatory funnel (RVSA + ROVER, with the 25‑year pathway), supportive AUD/JPY, and PSS‑season timing that bunched arrivals. Maersk+3Infrastructure Australia+3Infrastructure Australia+3
Q2. #2 gainer—why Jamaica?
Well‑telegraphed age limits and PSI reduce approval risk; BOJ held at 5.75%, and remittances rose +4.6% YoY in July, feeding retail deposits that translate into August shipments. Bank of Jamaica+3Trade Board+3Trade Board+3
Q3. Biggest drop—what hit Malaysia?
CO auto‑approval ended Aug 11, moving applications to manual checks; that added friction right into month‑end. FX wasn’t the culprit—MYR/JPY was relatively firm. miti.gov.my+1
Q4. Why did Chile slump?
A regulatory choke (general ban on used‑vehicle imports outside free zones), weak peso (USD/CLP ~950–975), and retail softness (new‑car sales −3.1% YoY) combined to cool releases. aduana.cl+2Exchange Rates UK+2
Sources & further reading
Australia (policy/approvals) — Department of Infrastructure (ROVER, RVSA; “25‑year” guidance). Infrastructure Australia+1
Oceania logistics — Carrier notices on PSS to Australia/NZ (Aug 2025). hapag-lloyd.com+1
Jamaica (rules/finance) — Trade Board age limits & PSI; BOJ policy and Remittances Bulletin (July 2025, +4.6% YoY). Bank of Jamaica+5Trade Board+5Trade Board+5
Malaysia (procedures) — MITI notice & circular discontinuing CO auto‑approval (effective 11 Aug 2025); Open‑AP policy broadening (July 2024). miti.gov.my+2miti.gov.my+2
Chile (rules/market/FX) — Aduanas pages referencing Law 18.483 (ban on used‑vehicle imports; free‑zone exceptions); La Tercera on Aug new‑car sales (−3.1% YoY); USD/CLP Aug levels. Exchange Rates UK+3aduana.cl+3aduana.cl+3
Practical playbook (carry‑forward)
Australia: Maintain a live 25‑year eligibility matrix by model; ROVER filing early; split bookings across two sailings during PSS. Infrastructure Australia+1
Jamaica: Lock PSI slots and verify 6‑year age cap at pre‑bid; align campaigns with BOJ/Remittance calendar. Trade Board+2Trade Board+2
Malaysia: Add CO vetting buffer and pre‑clear ROO evidence; coach newer Open‑AP partners on documentation hygiene. miti.gov.my+1
Chile: Quote with USD/CLP + freight + tax hedges; pre‑stage free‑zone release paperwork to shorten dwell. Exchange Rates UK
国名 | Country name | July | Augast | Percentage change |
ロシア | RUSSIA | 17,045 | 15,184 | -10.9% |
アラブ首長国連邦 | UAE | 19,292 | 18,883 | -2.1% |
モンゴル | Mongolia | 3,558 | 3,239 | -9.0% |
タンザニア | Tanzania | 9,389 | 11,929 | 27.1% |
ニュージーランド | NEW ZEALAND | 5,518 | 6,237 | 13.0% |
バングラデシュ | BANGLADESH | 2,246 | 2,041 | -9.1% |
フィリピン | PHILIPPINE | 3,257 | 3,035 | -6.8% |
タイ | Thailand | 2,707 | 2,731 | 0.9% |
ケニア | KENYA | 8,037 | 7,385 | -8.1% |
ジャマイカ | JAMAICA | 2,347 | 3,321 | 41.5% |
南アフリカ共和国 | SOUTH AFRICA | 4,692 | 4,806 | 2.4% |
マレーシア | MALYSIA | 4,470 | 2,162 | -51.6% |
チリ | CHILE | 6,562 | 3,896 | -40.6% |
ウガンダ | Uganda | 3,401 | 2,687 | -21.0% |
オーストラリア | AUSTRALIA | 1,289 | 2,089 | 62.1% |
ザンビア | Zambia | 2,486 | 1,591 | -36.0% |
英国 | United Kingdom | 2,681 | 2,117 | -21.0% |
アメリカ合衆国 | United states of america | 1,195 | 1,521 | 27.3% |
モザンビーク | Mozambique | 1,511 | 1,547 | 2.4% |
ガイアナ | Guyana | 2,963 | 2,674 | -9.8% |
コンゴ民主共和国 | Democratic Republic of the Congo | 1,538 | 1,214 | -21.1% |
アイルランド | Ireland | 1,312 | 1,003 | -23.6% |
ミャンマー | Myanmar | 78 | 50 | -35.9% |
ナイジェリア | Nigeria | 2,982 | 2,243 | -24.8% |
ジョージア | Georgia | 1,272 | 875 | -31.2% |
フィジー | Fiji | 798 | 726 | -9.0% |
ガーナ | Ghana | 2,951 | 2,219 | -24.8% |
シンガポール | SINGAPORE | 254 | 225 | -11.4% |
ジンバブエ | Zimbabwe | 1,449 | 1,489 | 2.8% |
バハマ | Bahamas | 797 | 729 | -8.5% |
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